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Summary
- I prioritize a TOLL+M investment model—tangible assets, oligopoly advantages, low incremental CapEx, durable cash flows, and macro tailwinds—to build resilient portfolios.
- Jamie Dimon highlights that even with 2% inflation, 10-year yields should remain above 4.0-4.5% due to risk premiums, supporting my 'run-it-hot' thesis.
- The S&P 500 prices in a 'good outcome' with little margin of safety; I see greater opportunity in selective stock picking over broad index exposure.
- I favor stocks like LB, TPL, VICI, UNP, and CME for their inflation protection, strong balance sheets, and secular tailwinds, mitigating risks from elevated rates and valuations.
- This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Main Street Alpha. Learn More »
Nisian Hughes/DigitalVision via Getty Images
Introduction
The algorithm on social media is fascinating because (depending on the website), it quickly adjusts based on your behavior. So, the second you watch an interview with an important person in finance, your entire timeline/homepage is flooded with similar interviews.
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Leo Nelissen is a macro-focused equity strategist and long-term investor with more than a decade of experience on Seeking Alpha, where he has built a following of over 50,000 readers. His work combines big-picture macro analysis, geopolitical insight, and bottom-up research to identify high-quality businesses and long-term investment opportunities. He is the founder of Main Street Alpha, a Seeking Alpha Investing Group focused on macro strategy, real portfolios, dividend investing, and disciplined capital allocation for long-term investors.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LB, TPL, UNP, CME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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