Bitcoin analyst spots 2015 signal that preceded 9,800% rally

Bitcoin analyst spots 2015 signal that preceded 9,800% rally Bitcoin analyst spots 2015 signal that preceded 9,800% rally · TheStreet Marcel Knobloch Wed, September 9, 2026 at 2:10 AM GMT+9 4 min read BTC-USD -0.76% ^GSPC -0.34% Bitcoin (BTC) has traded largely sideways for several days after climbing from about $64,000 to briefly above $82,000.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency stood at $78,417, down 1.46% over the last 24 hours.

Analysts remain divided over whether the recent rally marks the start of a more durable advance or merely a temporary rebound before another correction.

Bitwise said in a new market report that Bitcoin's rolling 260-day correlation with the S&P 500 had fallen to its lowest level since 2015.

The last time the relationship between the two asset classes reached comparable levels, Bitcoin subsequently embarked on a historic rally. Between its mid-2015 low and the market peak in late 2017, the cryptocurrency rose by roughly 9,800%.

Rolling 260-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 falls in 2026 to its lowest level since 2015.

The 260-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has fallen to roughly minus 0.6, its lowest level in more than a decade.

Bitwise cautioned that an exact, or even broadly comparable, repeat of that performance was unlikely, given Bitcoin's much more advanced stage of adoption. Nevertheless, it argued that the divergence suggested there could still be scope for the cryptocurrency to catch up relative to US equities.

Bitcoin and Ether have both outperformed the S&P 500 in recent weeks, reversing in less than a fortnight a performance deficit of roughly 20% that had persisted until the end of July.

The chart below illustrates the shift in relative performance.

Bitwise noted, however, that episodes in which Bitcoin decouples sharply from equities have historically tended not to last. Significant declines in Bitcoin have also often preceded larger corrections in equity markets.

The asset manager continues to expect that the recent tightening in financial conditions could ultimately trigger a more substantial correction in equities:

"In contrast, based on our quantitative analyses, Bitcoin appears to be more sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations while stocks appear to be more sensitive to global growth expectations – another reason for the current decoupling between Bitcoin and stocks."

A further deterioration in growth expectations could therefore weigh on equities. Bitcoin, by contrast, could benefit if weaker growth simultaneously strengthens expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

"Once global growth expectations falter, expectations for easier monetary policy will increase, i.e. rate hike expectations might reverse into rate cut expectations again. We think that in, such a scenario, Bitcoin could continue to outperform and decouple from the broader stock market."

There are nevertheless signs that investors are becoming more defensive. Bitwise said larger quantities of Bitcoin were increasingly being transferred to exchanges, a development that can precede increased selling pressure.

At the same time, unrealized profits have declined and put-to-call volumes have risen, suggesting stronger demand for downside protection and a more cautious near-term outlook.

The relative strength of alternative cryptocurrencies has also increased. According to Bitwise, 95% of the altcoins in its coverage universe outperformed Bitcoin during the past week.

Despite the recent strength in prices, Bitwise remains cautious in the short term. In Bitwise's view, that leaves the market vulnerable to a near-term correction even as the broader technical picture has improved.

The result is an increasingly mixed set of signals. Bitcoin has begun to move more independently from equities, while a broad range of altcoins has posted strong gains. Yet unusually bullish investor sentiment suggests traders may still have to contend with sharp volatility and potentially significant pullbacks.

Monetary policy remains another important variable. Bitwise pointed to the Federal Reserve's Sep. 16 meeting as a potentially decisive event. According to pricing reflected in the FedWatch tool, markets currently assign a 60.4% probability to a rate increase.

Of particular importance will be the number of additional rate increases that Fed chair Kevin Warsh signals could still be required.

"Irrespective of the FOMC meeting, it is worth pointing out that bond yields could "do the job" for the Fed by continuing to rise and tightening financial conditions without the Fed even delivering a single rate hike."

Regardless of the outcome of the FOMC meeting, rising bond yields could in effect deliver part of the monetary tightening before the Fed itself takes further action.

If the increase in yields continues, financial conditions would tighten further even if the central bank refrains from additional rate increases. For risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, that could prove an increasingly important constraint on the next leg of the market cycle.