Bond market traders are largely dismissing posts from former President Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, particularly regarding the ongoing Iran war. Analysts from JPMorgan indicate that Trump's posts have diminished in their ability to affect market volatility over time. Although most of his comments do not cause significant fluctuations in U.S. government bond yields, selected posts are still correlated with unusual volatility, suggesting some influence remains. Importantly, Trump's potential to affect markets through targeted messaging continues to attract attention from traders, especially with plans to sell early access to his posts, which could provide opportunities for profit.

15 hours ago - Business

Bond traders are tuning out Trump posts

Matt Phillips
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Illustration of a $500 U.S. bond, with Alexander Hamilton covering his eyes with his hand.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Three months into the Iran war, bond market traders are tuning out President Trump's posts on his personal social media site, Truth Social, analysts say.

Why it matters: Researchers from JPMorgan show that for the most part, his social media posts are noise, with very little ability to move the market.

What they're saying: " Although the bulk of the president's posts about the Middle East do not have a particularly dramatic effect on rates volatility on 30-minute timescales, a handful of posts coincide with volatility on this timescale well beyond what would be expected from 'normal' volatility," JPMorgan rates analysts wrote.

Looking at the impact of the president's Truth Social posts since the start of the Iran war, these analysts found more recent pronouncements had a weaker impact on yields on U.S. government bonds.
That suggests "the reaction of rates markets to President Trump's posts about the Middle East conflict has decayed over time despite the conflict still being ongoing," they wrote.

Yes, but: This doesn't mean the markets can completely afford to ignore the world's most powerful politician, especially given his unprecedented willingness to personally intervene to influence markets — from posting about individual stocks to oil and energy markets.

Context: The president's social media company is reportedly planning to sell early access to the feed to Wall Street traders, who could profit from knowing ahead of time about a Truth message that might trigger volatility.

The bottom line: Even if most of the president's social media musings are not relevant to investors, at least some can still move the markets.

And that means plenty on Wall Street will be more than willing to pay a premium for priority access.
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