Bond Traders on Edge as Risks of Fed Rate Hike This Week …

Bond traders are facing a more than 33% likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, driven by increased Middle East tensions which have raised oil prices and inflation concerns. Last week, US 10-year Treasury yields increased by 13 basis points to 4.71%, the highest since early 2025, with thirty-year yields nearing 5.19%, levels not seen in nearly twenty years.

Markets

FacebookXLinkedIn

EmailLink

Gift

Expand

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Photographer: Pete Kiehart/Bloomberg

FacebookXLinkedIn

EmailLink

GiftGift this article

Confidential tip?\ Send a tip to our reporters

Site feedback:\ Take our SurveyNew Window

FacebookXLinkedIn

EmailLink

Gift

By Ye Xie

July 26, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC

BookmarkSave

Bond traders enter the week seeing a better than one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates on Wednesday after flaring Middle East tensions lifted oil prices, boosting inflation worries and yields.

Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields jumped 13 basis points last week and reached 4.71%, the highest since early 2025, after the threat of an escalation in the Iran war pushed Brent oil back above $100 a barrel at one point. Thirty-year yields touched 5.19%, approaching levels last seen nearly two decades ago.

Read Original at Bloomberg.com →

Bond Traders on Edge as Risks of Fed Rate Hike This Week Mount