Brokerages line up bullish calls as SpaceX enters Nasdaq-…

SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index less than a month after its IPO on June 12, 2026, leading to significant passive buying estimated at over $4 billion. Despite a slight drop in premarket trading, several major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have initiated coverage with bullish ratings, viewing SpaceX as a strong player in AI and space logistics. However, some analysts express caution regarding the company's reliance on unproven initiatives like its Starship rocket. While analysts generally expect thousands of Starship launches annually by 2031, opinions on the stock's valuation vary, with some firms maintaining neutral or sell ratings. The rapid index inclusion of SpaceX could increase stock demand, affecting ETF and fund portfolios that track the Nasdaq-100.

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SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York City

The New Year's eve ball ascends on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Summary
Companies
SpaceX to join Nasdaq-100 less than a month after debut; among fastest inclusions
Index entry could draw over $4 bln in flows to SpaceX - JPM
Wall Street brokerages disclose ratings as quiet period ends
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citi start coverage with bullish ratings

July 7 (Reuters) - SpaceX's (SPCX.O), opens new tab addition to the Nasdaq-100 index on Tuesday is expected to unleash billions in passive buying, as brokerages kick off coverage of the $2 trillion-plus rocket and satellite company with broadly bullish ‌views.

Shares of the Elon Musk-led company were down marginally in premarket trading.

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The company joins the index less than a month after its stock market debut on June 12 - among the fastest inclusions ever - thanks to the Nasdaq's revised rules for newly listed companies looking to enter widely tracked benchmarks.

Its debut in the tech-heavy index is set to create another source of demand for its shares as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the Nasdaq-100 (.NDX), opens new tab will need to buy shares to match the benchmark's new composition. Active managers who track the index closely may also adjust their positions.

Many retail investors prefer investing in funds to diversify their holdings. Over $587 billion is benchmarked in funds tracking the Nasdaq-100, including Invesco's ⁠QQQ (QQQ.O), opens new tab and QQQM (QQQM.O), opens new tab, which will now have to make room for SpaceX.

J.P. Morgan estimated last month that SpaceX's addition to the index could draw $4.3 billion in passive inflows.

The stock's overall impact is not going to be more than 0.7% of the index, Swissquote Bank senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said

However, as the free float increases, SpaceX could become part of the companies that do have an impact on the Nasdaq-100, the analyst said.

SpaceX's wild ride since Nasdaq debut

Musk's rocket giant hit by post-IPO volatility in fifteen days of trading

A line chart showing the moves in SpaceX stock since its June 12 debut

SpaceX

stock price

155160165170175180185190195$200

SpaceX ends above $135 IPO price

Options start trading Briefly overtakes Amazon, Microsoft in market value

Joins FTSE Russell's U.S. indexes

Included in Nasdaq-100

Chart explorer. Use arrow keys ↑ ↓ ← → to navigate.

Note: Data as of market close on July 6

Source: LSEGPurvi Agarwal

WALL ST BROKERS LAUNCH COVERAGE WITH BULLISH VIEWS

Investors will also scrutinize the first wave of Wall Street research on SpaceX, as brokerages try to value the newly public company using conventional metrics rather than the investor faith in Musk's long-term vision that has largely driven its worth.

The industry-mandated quiet period ends for analysts at banks that underwrote the blockbuster IPO, which was led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo started coverage of the stock on Tuesday with their top ratings. Morgan Stanley dubbed the company as "AI's final frontier."

"We see the company as well-positioned to scale its differentiated advantages across space, connectivity, and AI," Goldman ‌analysts said, ⁠betting each market has the potential to become a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity over a five-year-plus horizon.

Most analysts see Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable next-generation rocket, as the key driver of the company's lofty growth projections.

"The Starship is the flywheel that powers SpaceX's ambitions," RBC analysts said, estimating about 2,440 launches by 2030.

Wall Street forecasts thousands of Starship launches annually by 2031, with J.P. Morgan projecting about 5,000, Wells Fargo 4,600, Bernstein 3,500 and UBS more than 1,500, depending on how much reusability SpaceX achieves.

However, not everyone was bullish on SpaceX.

MoffettNathanson, KeyBanc and Argus Research have the equivalent of "neutral" ratings, while CFRA is the only brokerage with a "sell" rating.

In ⁠June, CFRA said the company's valuation increasingly depends on unproven initiatives including Starship and xAI, which it considers too aggressive given execution risks, capital intensity and limited visibility into long-term profits.

Brokerages' investment recommendations for SpaceX as quiet period ends

Most brokerages maintain a bullish outlook on SpaceX

Brokerage	Rating	PT/PO
Raymond James	Strong Buy	$800
Morgan Stanley	Overweight	$300
Cantor Fitzgerald	Overweight	$246
Wells Fargo	Overweight	$230
Bernstein	Outperform	$239
JP Morgan	Overweight	$225
RBC Capital Markets	Outperform	$225
Clear Street	Buy	$217
UBS	Buy	$210
Goldman Sachs	Buy	$205
Mizuho	Outperform	$200
Citigroup	Buy	$200
Needham	Buy	$200
Stifel	Buy	$190
Deutsche Bank	Buy	$143
William Blair	Outperform	--
MoffettNathanson	Neutral	$130

Table with 3 columns and 17 rows. (column headers with buttons are sortable)

Note: These are brokerage investment recommendations following the end of industry-mandated quiet period

Source: Research notesAkriti Shah

INVESTORS BET ON AI CAPABILITIES

Investors are betting SpaceX can evolve into a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider in the near term, using cash generated to fund the development of Grok as it takes on OpenAI's GPT models and Anthropic's Claude.

They also see ⁠significant room for Starlink to expand its dominance in satellite communications, while much of the company's longer-term ambitions depend on the successful development of its next-generation Starship rocket.

With a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, SpaceX is the sixth-largest U.S. company, and CEO Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

FTSE Russell added the stock to its U.S. indexes last month, with funds such as iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB.P), opens new tab ⁠already giving investors a piece of the biggest IPO in U.S. history.

However, S&P Global (SPGI.N), opens new tab declined to create a similar fast-track process for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab in June, and it is expected to take at least a year before SpaceX joins the world's most widely tracked index.

SpaceX shares have gained more than 6% since their debut in a short ride marked by post-IPO volatility.

Reporting by Purvi Agarwal, Rashika Singh, Siddarth S and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Pooja Desai and Anil D'Silva

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Rashika Singh

Thomson Reuters

Rashika reports on brokerages and financial markets, alongside technology and corporate developments for Reuters, with a focus on U.S. and global companies. Her coverage spans analyst actions, earnings-driven stock moves, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aerospace and defense, and high‑growth technology stocks, often through breaking news and market‑moving “hot stock” coverage. Her reporting primarily appears in the Technology, Business, and Markets sections of the Reuters website and wire service, examining how brokerage research, corporate strategy and earnings influence investor sentiment and global competition. She regularly contributes to Reuters’ spot and breaking‑news coverage, rather than a named column or standalone newsletter.

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