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Ford Earnings Should Be Good—They Need to Be
By Al Root
Updated July 28, 2026, 10:07 am EDT / Original July 28, 2026, 5:51 am EDT
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About This Summary
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Ford is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting an operating profit of $2.1 billion.
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Ford’s EV business lost about $800 million in the first quarter and about $4.8 billion in 2025.
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An RBC analyst believes the U.S. decision not to renew the USMCA trade pact could weigh on Ford shares in the second half of the year.
Quarterly results from Ford Motor are due on Tuesday evening. They should be good. They need to be.
Wall Street is looking for second-quarter operating profit of $2.1 billion from sales of $47.2 billion. A year ago, Ford reported an operating profit of $2.1 billion from sales of $50.2 billion.
A guidance update will come along with earnings. In AprilExternal link, management said they expected to generate an operating profit of between $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion. That was up from a prior range of $8 billion to $10 billion.
Ford generated a 2025 operating profitExternal link of $6.8 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024. Tariffs shavedExternal link roughly $2 billion off operating profit in 2025. A fire at aluminum supplier Novelis cost Ford another $2 billion.
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Despite the April guidance boost, Ford stock dropped 1.3% after reporting first-quarter numbers. At the time, investors were still worried about the impact of higher oil prices and cost inflation. Still, Ford managed to raise guidance despite cost headwinds.
Since the first-quarter report, investors have become a little more comfortable with the outlook. Ford stock was roughly $12 after first-quarter earnings. It entered Tuesday closer to $15.
Things look OK for the U.S. car business. General Motors raised its full-year financial forecasts this past week when reporting second-quarter numbers. Still, improving investor sentiment and higher share prices raise expectations into earnings. There are still things to watch out for.
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RBC analyst Tom Narayan believes the U.S. recent decision not to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada trade pact, which opens it to renegotiation, could weigh on shares in the second half of the year.
USMCA could be a topic on Ford’s earnings conference call. Investors will also look for updates about Ford’s universal EV, or UEV, platform, which is intended to lower production costs, helping Ford make money on electric cars. UEV sales should start around 2027.
Ford’s EV business lost about $800 million in the first quarter and about $4.8 billion in 2025.
Shares of the car maker rose 0.9% in early trading to $14.82, while the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7%.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.comExternal link
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