Here’s How Much Microsoft Stock Is Expected to Move After…

The page covers the anticipation surrounding Microsoft's upcoming earnings report, highlighting that traders expect significant volatility in its stock, projected to swing up to 6% post-report. Microsoft shares have declined nearly 20% this year due to concerns over AI spending, impacting investor sentiment. Analysts are optimistic, forecasting revenue growth to $87.71 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share expected to reach $4.25. Key points of interest include the company's investments in AI and how it navigates rising hardware costs, with 11 of 12 analysts rating it as a 'buy'.

Signage at the Microsoft campus in Mountain View, California

Microsoft shares are down nearly 20% since the start of the year. David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

Microsoft is set to report earnings Wednesday afternoon, with recent options pricing suggesting traders see its stock swinging up to 6% by the end of the week.
Its stock has been pressured lately amid worries about AI spending.

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Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, with traders anticipating a big move from the software giant’s stock.1

Based on recent options pricing, traders expect Microsoft ( MSFT) shares could swing up to 6% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Tuesday’s close could see the stock rally as high as $418, its highest point in over a month. The low end of that range could see the shares slip as low as $368.

Microsoft shares have lost nearly 20% of their value since the start of the year as worries about AI disruption have weighed on the software sector broadly. Concerns about Microsoft’s spending on its AI buildout have also pressured its stock.

Why This Matters to Investors

Earnings from several big names in the tech sector this week could test how investors are feeling about the AI trade following results from Alphabet and Tesla last week that sent the stocks lower.

Deutsche Bank analysts said in a recent note that investors will likely be watching closely for updates around rising hardware prices and the company’s investments in AI, along with the concentration of its backlog.2

Microsoft is projected to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $87.71 billion, up nearly 15% year-over-year, with revenue in its Intelligent Cloud segment seen growing 28% to $38.24 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to come in at $4.25, up from $3.65 a year ago, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

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Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Microsoft. Eleven of the 12 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha consider it a “buy,” with one neutral rating. Their mean price target of $549 would suggest 40% upside from Tuesday’s close.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices and analyst estimates.

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Microsoft. “ Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.”
Deutsche Bank. “F4Q Preview - Capex & ROIC.”

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