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Jobs report: Labor market may be picking up, but the picture is complicated
Updated Thu, July 2, 2026 at 6:01 AM EDT2 min read
There might be a little bit of warmth in the labor market. Thursday's jobs report will help show whether that's translating into gains for workers.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect government data to show the economy added 115,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month.
The good news: That level of payroll growth is solidly above what's needed to keep the jobless rate from climbing as immigration declines and the workforce ages.
The not-so-great news: As of May, hiring was still weak, and consumers continue to feel it's difficult to find work. The population out of work for more than 27 weeks as a share of total unemployment also rose in May, while average hourly earnings failed to keep pace with inflation.
Other data released so far this week has been mixed. Private employers added fewer jobs than expected in June, ADP data showed, though l ayoff plans are on the decline, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Job openings in May came in better than anticipated, but there wasn't much movement in workers getting hired or leaving their positions.
"The labor market seems to be amid a gentle warming of conditions, but workers haven't yet felt the warmth," Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note Wednesday. "The quits rate remains depressed, and surveys of households paint a bleak outlook. Meanwhile, ADP's measure of wage growth for job switchers hasn't budged."
The nonfarm-payrolls data for June is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. The report has been brought forward from its usual release on the first Friday of the month due to the Fourth of July holiday.
Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com .
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