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Key Points
- The latest developments in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran have Kalshi traders thinking that gas prices will remain elevated for a longer period of time.
- They now place a 75% chance gas prices on Nov. 3 will be above $3.50 per gallon, and 39% odds that prices will be higher than $3.75.
- Before the Iran war, gas prices were below $3, according to AAA.
Motorists purchase gas at a station in Chicago, Illinois, June 9, 2026.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
With the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes once again — and the return of normal traffic flows in the Strait of Hormuz in doubt — traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think gas prices will likely still be elevated for longer now.
Speculators think there's a 75% chance that gas prices on Election Day, Nov. 3, will be above $3.50 per gallon, and place 39% odds that prices will be above $3.75. Before the recent developments in the Middle East, those odds were as low as 37% and 22%, respectively.
The contract is resolved using data from AAA's national average of gas prices.
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WTI Crude 5-day chart.
On Thursday, the national average of gas prices was at $3.84, according to AAA, up 5 cents from the day prior. The rise comes as U.S. oil prices rose as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday, up from around $68 per barrel on Monday. However, WTI crude eased to below $72 per barrel on Thursday.
While traders on Kalshi think gas prices will remain higher for longer, they also don't see them returning to new highs. They give just a 43% chance gas prices cross $4.60 this year, although that's up from about a one-in-three chance before renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
The high for gas prices in 2026 was on May 21, when the average hit $4.56. Before the war with Iran began, the national average for U.S. gas prices was below $3 per gallon.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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