Latest improvement on inflation isn’t ‘mission accomplished,’ Fed Chairman Warsh says
Updated 3:38 PM EDT, Tue July 14, 2026
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Inflation cools significantly, first time in six years
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• Kevin Warsh appeared before lawmakers on Capitol Hill for the first time as Fed chairman, where he delivered his semiannual testimony to the House Finance Committee.
• Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing down inflation and said that the Fed will remain free of political influence.
• Warsh’s assessment of the US economy came as the latest monthly inflation report showed the pace of price hikes slowed sharply in June as tensions eased in the Middle East and energy prices dropped.
• However, with the United States and Iran now back to exchanging military attacks, that price relief could prove short lived for American consumers and businesses. Warsh told lawmakers June’s monthly drop in inflation does not mean “Mission Accomplished.”
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Our live coverage of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first day of testimony to Congress has ended. More analysis is available here .
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Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts denounced Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to not submit economic forecasts at last month’s policy meeting, according to a letter obtained by CNN.
The letter, which the senator plans to submit to Warsh on Wednesday ahead of his second day of testimony on the Hill, asks the Fed leader to share his expectations for unemployment, inflation, and his views on transparency, among other things. Warren is the committee’s top Democrat.
“Your unwillingness to provide the public with this insight into your economic expectations also deprives Americans of information amidst an unprecedented campaign by the administration to shape the Fed’s decisions,” Warren wrote. “Transparency about your own economic judgment is the minimum American families should expect from the person who is leading America’s central bank, which makes decisions that impact the cost of their mortgages, their credit cards, and their grocery bills.”
Every three months, Fed officials submit their estimates on where interest rates, the unemployment rate, inflation and economic growth are heading in the coming years. Warsh’s decision to not submit his own forecast was unusual, but aligns with his ongoing reforms at the Fed, which include scaling back so-called forward guidance, or the long-held practice of projecting the economy’s path. The Fed chairman has suggested he may eventually scrap the quarterly projections entirely, though he said they will remain in place for now.
Warsh did not give forward guidance during Tuesday’s hearing.
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1 hr 54 min ago
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Traders on Tuesday dialed back bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in July, although the market is still pricing in higher rates later this year.
This morning’s better-than-expected inflation report prompted a shift in expectations for Fed policy: Markets are now pricing in a 17% chance that the Fed raises interest rates in July, down from a 42% chance one day ago, according to CME FedWatch.
Annual inflation in June was 3.5% compared to 4.2% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s still well above the Fed’s target of 2%, but it’s an improvement from the month prior.
Traders largely expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in July and then raise rates in September, according to CME FedWatch.
US stocks were mostly higher after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first day of testimony concluded. The S&P 500 was up 0.5%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and the Russell 2000 rose 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the Dow was down 65 points, or 0.1%. IBM ( IBM) shares plunged 25% and were set for their worst day on record, weighing on the Dow.
Oil prices were up on the day but pared some earlier gains. Brent crude was up more than 1%, to $84.35 per barrel. WTI rose almost 1%, to $78.70 per barrel.
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2 hr 48 min ago
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In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh claimed that “interest rates don’t favor one class of people versus another.”
“They don’t favor those that have financial assets more than folks that are living off their bi-monthly paychecks,” he went on to say.
That’s not quite true.
For instance, when interest rates go up, the rates people can earn by putting their money away in savings accounts and buying certain assets, like certificates of deposit, tends to increase.
But it means that borrowers also have to pay higher rates. People who can end up affording the higher rates likely have that ability because they have more assets on hand.
Warsh’s comments were part of his explanation for why his monetary policy tool of choice is changing interest rates rather than buying or selling massive amounts of assets to raise or lower rates, as was done during the Great Recession.
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2 hr 54 min ago
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
Eric Lee/Getty Images
By many measures, the June Consumer Price Index report that was released earlier on Tuesday was welcome news. The nation’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.4%, marking the first one-month decline in six years.
But Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh isn’t satisfied.
“It’s one data point,” he testified before members of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. “There might be some that look at this morning’s data and say, ‘Oh, mission accomplished. Everything is swell.’ That is not my view.” Warsh later called the report “positive relative to expectations.”
“I would feel more confident if we had better data to inform our decision making. We have a task force that’s going to be focused on doing just that,” he added.
Federal Reserve officials generally look at trends in data and give little weight to what occurs in one particular month. That’s especially relevant for last month’s report, given many economists are expecting inflation to ramp back up as gas prices have started to climb again now that the conflict in the Middle East has re-escalated.
“The 63 months of inflation above target has been an unfair burden,” Warsh told lawmakers. “It has been a tax on the American people and businesses. We plan on getting rid of that tax. That means we need a regime change in policy and we need new consideration of practices, some of which have been working, some which haven’t.”
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3 hr 53 min ago
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US consumer prices declined last month for the first time in six years, when rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. The 0.4% fall in prices last month also marks the largest slide since April 2020.
Here’s how the path of inflation looks now:
Monthly inflation fell in June
Monthly inflation fell in June
The Consumer Price Index declined 0.4% in June compared to the previous month.
A column chart showing monthly CPI changes since May 2020.
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Notes: Seasonally adjusted. Data for October and November 2025 are unavailable due to a lapse in appropriations.
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsGraphic:Rhyannon Bartlett-Imadegawa, CNN
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4 hr 26 min ago
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(L-R:) Doug McMillon, Asha Sharma, Marc Andreessen.
Michael M. Santiago/David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images/Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh unveiled the members of the five task forces that will examine key issues that shape US monetary policy as part of his broader bid to reshape the world’s most powerful central bank.
In addition to academics and former central bankers, they include prominent business leaders such as former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon; Marc Andreessen, cofounder of Andreessen Horowitz; and Asha Sharma, executive vice president and Xbox CEO at Microsoft.
In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Warsh said the purpose of the initiative is “to equip the Fed to make better decisions in monetary policy and put these years of high inflation behind us.”
He emphasized that the task force will operate independently from political influence, as the Fed does. Warsh vowed to share the task forces’ “results and thinking periodically between now and the end of the year.”
It’s unclear how the task force selections were made, but several members have overlapped with Warsh professionally, including during his first stint at the Fed; while serving as a special assistant to former President George H.W. Bush; and at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, where Warsh was a visiting fellow for 15 years.
Of the task force members, Andreessen’s connection to Warsh appears to be strongest, dating back 30 years to when the two attended Stanford University together.
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5 hr 17 min ago
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been very vocal about his desire to limit how officials communicate with the public, mainly as it relates to anything that can preview where rates may be heading.
He doubled down on his view Tuesday while testifying before the House Financial Services Committee.
“If we were to share with you our every passing thought, I worry not that there’s anything wrong with us, but we’re human,” Warsh said. If new information comes out that differs with officials’ views, he’s concerned that officials would potentially ignore it.
“We want to get policy right, and I think being somewhat more circumspect in our communications, at least for me, is a better way of calling balls and strikes,” he said.
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3 hr 15 min ago
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh attends a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee to testify on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
The Federal Reserve will continue to set interest rates without considering politics, Chairman Kevin Warsh said Tuesday, though he acknowledged the highly politicized environment.
During Warsh’s first congressional testimony, Democratic Rep. Nydia Velázquez of New York asked the new Fed leader if he works for Trump, to which he responded: “We’re an independent central bank.”
He reiterated that view in an exchange with Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, who pressed Warsh on how he would respond if Trump “publicly pressures you to pursue a different course” than that warranted by economic data.
“My commitment to you is to follow the law and follow the data. Follow our very best judgment,” Warsh responded.
The Fed has been subject to an unrelenting onslaught of attacks since President Donald Trump began his second term last year, particularly the central bank’s former leader, Jerome Powell.
The Trump administration also tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her role, but the Supreme Court last month ruled that Cook wasn’t given enough due process.
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6 hr 17 min ago
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US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh takes his seat to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on Tuesday.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
In testimony to Congress and at his swearing-in ceremony, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh promised “regime change.” Here’s how that looks so far:
He has unveiled five monetary policy task forces to address communications, the balance sheet, productivity and jobs, data and inflation frameworks.
At his first monetary policy meeting, he broke with tradition and did not submit a “dot,” aka an economic projection.
He dramatically shrank the Fed’s latest policy statement.
His post-meeting news conference was shorter than those with his predecessor.
He has hinted that there will be fewer news conferences, noting that “when you have one, you want to make sure you have something important to say.”
He is against offering “forward guidance,” or any hint where interest rates may be heading.
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6 hr 28 min ago
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first testimony before Congress since becoming the leader of the nation’s central bank in May is now underway.
It comes just hours after the June Consumer Price Index report was released. The report showed that the significant fall in energy prices last month drove down annual inflation to 3.5%, from 4.2% in May. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.4%, the first one-month decline in six years.
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6 hr 43 min ago
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Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stands in the East Room during his swearing-in ceremony, at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 22.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, whose four-year term started May 15, is set to deliver his first semiannual testimony to the House Finance Committee today and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.
Warsh’s appearance on the Hill comes as the US-Israeli war with Iran shows little sign of easing, keeping investors and policymakers alert for renewed energy price shocks. The latest CPI report showed that inflation cooled last month as the Middle East conflict eased, but remains well above the Fed’s target.
Those crosscurrents are complicating the Fed’s job: While a cooling economy would typically lead to lower interest rates, persistent inflation is keeping rates at their current elevated level and could even force the central bank to raise borrowing costs.
While Warsh has repeatedly declined to offer “forward guidance,” or any predictions about the future trajectory of the US economy, he will be expected to answer questions from lawmakers in whether the conflict threatens to push inflation higher and what that could mean for the Fed’s interest rate path.
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6 hr 51 min ago
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on July 9 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
US stocks were slightly higher Tuesday morning as traders digested the latest inflation report, pored over quarterly earnings results and monitored developments in the Middle East.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%.
The Dow rose 24 points, or 0.05%. The Dow was weighed down by IBM ( IBM), which plunged 24% after preliminary earnings results disappointed investors.
Data this morning showed month-over-month inflation fell in June after soaring in the months prior. Still, annual inflation rose 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“ Fed officials as recently as Monday have been expressing their intolerance for inflation,” Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a note. “One problem for markets is that that sentiment, while clear enough, leaves open the timing and sequence of any future moves.”
Traders are trying to discern the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has expressed interest in moving away from offering forward guidance, is scheduled to deliver remarks at 10 a.m. ET today in semiannual testimony before the House Finance Committee.
Meanwhile, oil prices climbed as conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate. Brent crude rose about 3.3%, to $86 per barrel. WTI gained more than 2%, to just above $80 per barrel.
Brent and WTI have surged 18% and 15%, respectively, this month. Oil prices remain below their peak during the war with Iran (when they were above $110 per barrel) but have pushed higher this month after declining in recent weeks.
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6 hr 57 min ago
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A man fills up his vehicle at a gas station in Brooklyn on June 1 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
A 5.7% decline in energy prices in June was more than enough to drive down overall monthly figures in the Consumer Price Index.
Because energy is one of the major expenses consumers face, it’s given more weight in terms of how the overall index is calculated. That means that even small changes in energy prices can have a large effect on the direction of CPI.
So last month’s huge decline in energy prices stemming from the fragile ceasefire with Iran ended up accounting for over 100% of the 0.4% monthly fall in prices. Gasoline alone accounted for just under 100% of the monthly decline.
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6 hr 58 min ago
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Tuesday’s encouraging inflation report for June likely means Federal Reserve officials can hold interest rates at their current level when they meet later this month to discuss monetary policy. But what’s far less certain is how they will respond if inflation springs back up, a likely outcome since gas prices are moving higher this month.
For now, the June report is “good news for the nation, for the Federal Reserve and for many middle-income and moderate-income Americans who were desperate for some relief on inflation,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
“The overall picture is encouraging. But it’s too uncertain right now to know how the renewed conflict in Iran will impact prices in July. The Fed may have to hike interest rates by December, but for now, the best course of action is to wait and see,” Long wrote in a Tuesday note.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said: “Today’s data all but rules out a July rate hike.”
“Beyond that, the outlook is less certain. Resurgent energy prices, growing focus on the inflationary effects of the AI capex boom, and Warsh’s re-emphasized intolerance for elevated inflation suggest the risk of a rate hike this year is very much alive,” she wrote in Tuesday commentary.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said the big risk is still geopolitical, and that “a positive resolution with Iran before the end of the summer is becoming increasingly important.”
“After today’s benign core inflation release, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings. However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices,” he wrote in comments distributed Tuesday.
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7 hr 17 min ago
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17 in Washington.
Rod Lamkey/AP
The central bank’s congressional mandate is to promote two key goals: maximum employment and stable prices. But at the most recent monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said he doesn’t believe in the “cruel choice” of deciding whether to focus on inflation or jobs.
Traditionally, economists have viewed the Fed’s dual mandate as a balancing act, with one goal sometimes coming at the expense of the other. If the Fed cuts rates to help spur employment, it risks igniting inflation. On the flip side, if the Fed keeps rates too high to fight inflation, it risks pushing more people out of work.
“I don’t believe that we have a cruel choice,” he said last month. “I don’t share the view that was expressed a few generations ago that the Federal Reserve chairman show up at the podium and say you’ve got to choose, and you’re going to have to decide whether you’re willing to tolerate higher inflation to put more people at work.”
Warsh’s message on inflation is uncomplicated: “The Fed will deliver price stability.”
“The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that’s an important message we’ve missed for five years. And we’re going to fix that,” he said in his first press conference.
“What I believe is if we do our job, we can make strong growth, low prices and strong employment mutually compatible.”
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7 hr 13 min ago
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The Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York is shown in January 2023.
Peter Morgan/AP
It’s a day of blockbuster earnings on Wall Street.
Wall Street banks hauled in enormous profits in the second quarter, supported by traders capitalizing on a volatile market environment and a boom in dealmaking.
Five major US banks reported quarterly earnings Tuesday:
JPMorgan Chase ( JPM) reported quarterly profits of $21.2 billion, up 41% year over year. Revenue from stock market trading rose 86% and investment banking fees rose 30% year over year.
Goldman Sachs ( GS) reported $6.63 billion in quarterly profit, up a whopping 78% from a year earlier. Revenue from stock trading rose 72% and investment banking fees rose 55% year over year.
Wells Fargo ( WFC) hauled in $6.41 billion in quarterly profits, up 17% from a year earlier. Wells Fargo’s stock trading revenue rose 64% and investment banking fees rose 35% year over year.
Citi ( C) posted profits of $5.8 billion, up 45% year over year. Citi’s stock market trading revenue also jumped 45% year over year. Citi’s metric for investment bank revenues rose 44% year over year.
Bank of America ( BAC) recorded profits of $9.1 billion, up 27% from a year earlier. Stock market trading rose 70% and investment banking fees rose 50% year over year.
Shares were mixed in premarket trading: JPMorgan Chase fell 2%, while Citi, Wells Fargo and Bank of America fell about 1%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs gained almost 4%.
Asked on a call with reporters about exuberance in financial markets, JPMorgan Chase chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum said “it would be naive not be worried,” but stressed vigilance about risks.
“It’s always easy to be worried, and then the market keeps going up,” Barnum said. “We worry a lot all the time, but in the meantime, we have to support our clients, and that’s what we’re doing.”
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7 hr 27 min ago
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For the past few months, Americans’ paychecks were essentially being wiped out by inflation. That’s because inflation was growing at a faster rate than wages, a result of slowing wage growth combined with ramped-up inflation stemming from the war with Iran.
But Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report showed that on an annual basis, prices are rising at 3.5%, which is equal to the annual rate average hourly earnings are growing, per the June employment report.
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7 hr 52 min ago
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Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller at a Board Meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on October 24, 2025.
Annabelle Gordon/Sipa USA/AP
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee is getting more comfortable thinking about raising interest rates for the first time since 2023.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday in a speech in New York said “sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.”
That’s a decidedly tough stance — and in stark contrast to his views from the beginning of the year, when he backed rate cuts and was in the running for the top job at the Fed.
Waller now joins other officials who have expressed similar concerns with inflation, such as Fed presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, who vote on policy moves this year.
Fed officials’ latest economic projections from last month showed that nearly all of them expect to either hike or hold rates steady this year, with only one policymaker estimating a rate cut. The chances of a rate hike this year still largely depend on what happens with the US-Israeli war with Iran, and whether inflation pressures broaden beyond the energy market and become long lasting.
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6 hr 56 min ago
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People shop at the Macy's in Herald Square on June 3 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
When stripping out energy and food, two of the most volatile categories, far less progress was made last month on what economists refer to as “core inflation” compared to the headline reading.
Last month, core inflation fell to 2.6% from 2.9% in May’s reading. Federal Reserve officials closely monitor core inflation because it provides a better gauge of underlying price pressures stemming from factors outside of the war.
On a monthly basis, however, core inflation was unchanged from May, when it rose at a 0.2% rate.
Ahead of Tuesday’s report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said if there were another “hot reading on core inflation this week,” he and his colleagues would need to consider raising interest rates.
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