The article discusses the recent downturn in oil prices, noting that Brent crude is experiencing its largest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 market crash due to easing tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment has driven prices down, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to recover following negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Analysts warn that the market may be underestimating the potential for renewed disruptions, with both Brent and WTI prices dropping significantly. The outlook reflects a cautious optimism in the oil market, with warnings of how quickly situations can change.

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	WTI Crude •11 mins	69.97	-0.78	-1.10%
	Brent Crude •11 mins	73.35	-0.56	-0.76%
	Murban Crude •16 mins	70.09	+0.35	+0.50%
	Natural Gas •11 mins	3.261	+0.080	+2.51%
	Heating Oil •43 mins	3.283	-0.049	-1.46%
	Gasoline •11 mins	2.901	0.000	-0.01%
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Gasoline •11 mins	2.901	0.000	-0.01%
Heating Oil •43 mins	3.283	-0.049	-1.46%
WTI Midland •26 mins	69.96	-0.80	-1.13%
Opec Basket •7 days	77.37	-2.89	-3.60%
Indian Basket •7 days	70.71	-4.57	-6.07%

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	Marine •680 days	75.08	-2.22	-2.87%
	Murban •680 days	76.34	-1.97	-2.52%
	Iran Heavy •366 days	64.96	-0.76	-1.16%
	Basra Light •1674 days	71.69	-3.60	-4.78%
	Saharan Blend •366 days	68.65	-0.72	-1.04%
	Bonny Light •121 days	67.66	+3.95	+6.20%
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Bonny Light •121 days	67.66	+3.95	+6.20%
Girassol •680 days	79.56	-1.80	-2.21%
Opec Basket •7 days	77.37	-2.89	-3.60%

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	Canadian Crude Index •1127 days	53.57	-1.23	-2.24%
	Western Canadian Select •13 hours	58.40	+1.52	+2.67%
	Canadian Condensate •13 hours	72.90	+1.52	+2.13%
	Premium Synthetic •13 hours	71.15	+1.52	+2.18%
	Sweet Crude •13 hours	65.00	+1.52	+2.39%
	Peace Sour •13 hours	62.75	+1.52	+2.48%
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Peace Sour •13 hours	62.75	+1.52	+2.48%
Light Sour Blend •13 hours	63.00	+1.52	+2.47%
Syncrude Sweet Premium •13 hours	67.25	+1.52	+2.31%
Central Alberta •13 hours	62.60	+1.52	+2.49%

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	Louisiana Light •8 days	76.15	-6.03	-7.34%
	Domestic Swt. @ Cushing •6 days	68.40	+1.58	+2.36%
	Giddings •6 days	62.15	+1.58	+2.61%
	ANS West Coast •8 days	86.99	-2.91	-3.24%
	West Texas Sour •6 days	70.15	+1.58	+2.30%
	Eagle Ford •6 days	68.40	+1.58	+2.36%
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Eagle Ford •6 days	68.40	+1.58	+2.36%
Oklahoma Sweet •6 days	69.25	+2.00	+2.97%
Kansas Common •6 days	58.75	+1.58	+2.76%
Buena Vista •457 days	70.40	+1.10	+1.59%

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Oil Prices Head for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since Pandemic

By Charles Kennedy - Jun 30, 2026, 9:00 AM CDT

Brent crude is on track for its largest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 market crash as tensions in the Middle East ease.
Markets have largely erased the geopolitical risk premium after the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue negotiations, allowing tanker traffic through Hormuz to recover.
Analysts caution that traders may be underestimating the risk of renewed disruptions despite improving sentiment.

oil prices

As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tentatively reopens following the U.S.-Iran deal to make a deal, oil prices on Tuesday were on track to post a 20% monthly decline and a 30% quarterly plunge in the biggest slump in a quarter since the pandemic-driven crash in prices.

In the first quarter of 2020, Brent Crude prices plummeted by 65.5% as the world entered into lockdowns and road transport and industrial fuel demand crashed.

The next steepest decline since then was registered in the quarter ending on Tuesday, with quarterly Brent prices slumping by 30.4%, per data from the ICE exchange compiled by Bloomberg.

For the month of June alone, oil prices were losing as much as 22% as of early Tuesday, after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to continue negotiations on a potential peace deal by August.

Both Brent and WTI benchmarks have dropped so much in the past two weeks that they are now nearly level with the prices from just before the first U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.

The return to pre-war price levels is the result of market hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and traffic will gradually continue to pick up in the coming weeks.

Investment banks rushed to slash their oil price forecasts after the U.S. and Iran announced the MoU, but many analysts continue to caution against too much optimism. Sentiment points to traders betting on a quick recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t a given—the situation can deteriorate at any moment, as this weekend’s renewed hostilities showed.

“The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran as a permanent deal,” Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a note this week.

“At close to $70/bbl, the oil market currently has close to zero geopolitical risk premium priced in.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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