Oil prices little changed as US-Iran peace efforts hold

On July 3, 2026, oil prices saw a slight increase amidst ongoing peace efforts between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude rose to $72.10 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate reached $68.78. Prices remained mostly stable over the week, despite benchmarks hitting their lowest levels since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Investor optimism centers on potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz due to recent peace talks, although uncertainties persist following a recent exchange of strikes between the two nations. OPEC's oil production increased significantly in June, driven in part by rising output from Kuwait. Furthermore, Saudi Aramco has shifted to spot pricing to expedite sales in Asia, contributing to a market shift towards contango, which indicates decreasing expectations of future shortages.

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Summary
Companies
Benchmarks touched pre-war lows on Thursday
Saudi Aramco shifts to spot sales in Asia
Brent spread contango signals fading shortage concerns

CALGARY and LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked slightly higher on Friday but were little changed for the week as traders held on to hopes ‌for a successful outcome from attempts to secure peace between the U.S. and Iran.

Brent futures were up 30 cents, or 0.42%, at $72.10 a barrel by 13:22 ET. West Texas Intermediate was up 9 cents, or 0.13%, at $68.78 a barrel.

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U.S. markets were closed ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

On Thursday, the two oil benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.

Investor hopes for a full ⁠reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are being buoyed by peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, Commerzbank analysts said.

"The U.S.-Iran dealmaking process remains fragile but continues for now, as the question of Strait of Hormuz tolls and administration remains contentious," Citi analysts wrote on Friday.

"We expect the MoU (memorandum of understanding) to hold, not because trust has suddenly emerged, but because the incentives to break are poor for both sides," Citi analysts said.

Some shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, as called for under the initial U.S.-Iranian deal, but uncertainty is high after the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.

With the prospect of being able to ship more oil, ‌Gulf ⁠producers are working to increase output. OPEC output in June rose by 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month, according to a Reuters survey.

Kuwait's oil production rose sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, from 580,000 bpd in May, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

At least five supertankers carrying a total of 10 million barrels of Saudi oil have left the Strait of ⁠Hormuz and Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab has switched to spot pricing from longer-term contracts to speed sales in Asia, according to trade sources and shipping data.

"Overall, the recovery in Middle Eastern supply is outpacing our initial expectations while Chinese-depressed import demand remains weak," said Rory ⁠Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter.

As the availability of supplies grows, the market structure has turned from backwardation to contango, reflecting decreasing expectation of future shortages.

Brent crude for prompt delivery traded this week below contracts for delivery as far ⁠as six months into the future, the latest sign that increasing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have caused a near-term glut.

Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary and Robert Harvey in London, Sam Li in Beijing and Helen Clark in Perth; Editing by Mark Potter, David Goodman, Louise Heavens, Mark Porter and Bill Berkrot

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Robert Harvey

Thomson Reuters

Robert is a London-based energy reporter covering the oil sector in Europe and beyond for Reuters since 2023. His areas of coverage include physical and derivates markets and trading, the impact of western sanctions against Russia on oil trade flows and prices, and Europe's refining sector.

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