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SpaceX Stock Faces 2 Massive Tests This Week. One Could Triple Its Public Float
Thomas Richmond
Mon, August 3, 2026 at 5:28 PM EDT3 min read
Quick Read
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Prediction markets price a 70% chance SpaceX (SPCX) misses Tuesday's debut earnings, while 911 million insider shares unlock Thursday, potentially tripling the float.
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Rocket Lab (RKLB) has dropped 35% in a month despite 63% revenue growth, and historically moves 9% higher when SpaceX posts an earnings beat.
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CNBC's Morgan Brennan joined the Halftime Report on Monday to spotlight two catalysts converging on SpaceX ( NASDAQ:SPCX) this week: the company's first quarterly report as a public company on Tuesday, followed by a lockup expiration that could reshape the tradable float.
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Shares closed at $114.53 on August 3, down 29.30% over the past month and, per Brennan's segment, more than 20% below the IPO price.
Risk #1: Can Starlink Cover SpaceX's Massive Cash Burn In The Company's First Earnings Report?
Brennan framed Starlink as the swing factor. "Starlink, which is part of connectivity, is the profit engine for SpaceX and encounters big spending on both Starship and xAI," she said. Her framing of what investors need to hear: " The key question: how much does Starlink subscriber growth, cloud deals with the likes of Anthropic and Google, and multibillion-dollar government contracts offset that cash burn?"
Prediction markets are leaning cautious. Polymarket traders are pricing in a 70% probability that SpaceX misses expectations in the earnings report, with the market expiring August 4 at 9:00 PM ET.
Reddit sentiment mirrors that unease. A wallstreetbets thread titled "SPCX: from 'new space age' to a measuring stick for the AI bubble" has anchored bearish sentiment across the past week, with 10 of 14 aggregated readings scored bearish.
Risk #2: The Lockup Expiration That Could Triple the Float
Brennan noted that " 911 million shares owned by some 20% of insiders become eligible to sell. Now, just to put that in perspective, SpaceX sold 629 million shares, or less than 5% of shares outstanding in the IPO."
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She added that "the public float could triple overall" through September's staggered unlocks, and warned that "all of this isn't just expected to impact SpaceX either. Other space stocks have been selling off in the wake of the IPO."
That impending supply shock echoes prior warnings from former NASDAQ chief Robert Greifeld about lockup-driven flooding, and from Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who has cited SpaceX unlocks as a market headwind.
Story Continues
The Rocket Lab Read-Through
Rocket Lab ( NASDAQ:RKLB) is the cleanest listed proxy for the space industry, and it has felt the drag. Shares closed at $70.43 on August 3, down 29.89% over the past month, even as the underlying business kept accelerating. Rocket Lab carries an average price target of $114.47, with 14 Buy and 3 Hold ratings.
CEO Peter Beck reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $200.35M, up 63.5% year over year, a beat versus consensus, with backlog expanding to $2.20 billion and liquidity above $2 billion. Q2 guidance calls for revenue of $225M to $240M and non-GAAP gross margin of 38% to 40%, with the Neutron medium-lift debut targeted for later in 2026.
What to Watch
Tuesday's SpaceX earnings scorecard comes down to four areas:
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Starlink subscriber growth and average revenue per user
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The company's services mix
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Disclosed cloud partnerships with companies such as Anthropic and Google
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The size and timing of federal contract awards
Investors will ultimately want evidence that those revenue sources can offset spending on Starship and xAI and move SpaceX closer to positive free cash flow.
Even a strong earnings report cannot eliminate the second risk. About 911 million insider-owned shares become eligible for sale beginning Thursday, while staggered unlocks could roughly triple the public float by the end of the month. Given the sell-off already spreading across the space sector, Rocket Lab investors should watch SpaceX's earnings reaction and lockup expiration closely.
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