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Summary
- SpaceX is upgraded to a buy after a 51% peak-to-trough decline, aligning with historical IPO drawdown patterns that signal attractive long-term entry points.
- SPCX now trades 15% below its IPO price; technicals show emerging support at $111, with $102 as a key historical buy zone and $120 as a near-term confirmation level.
- Despite heavy selling and upcoming share unlocks, I believe the drawdown largely prices in supply risks, with major Wall Street targets (e.g., $300 from Morgan Stanley) remaining bullish.
- Q2 2026 earnings on August 4 could act as a clearing event, with implied volatility at 115% suggesting a significant price move ahead.
Sven Piper/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
SpaceX (SPCX) has gone from darling to dog. Shares peaked above $225 on June 16, shortly after its IPO. Today, the stock bumps along the $110 mark, which is a bit more than 50% below its peak. That’s key, as historical IPO data point to 55% being the typical max
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