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 | WTI Crude •11 mins | 74.98 | -1.81 | -2.36% | |
| Brent Crude •11 mins | 77.88 | -1.67 | -2.10% | |
 | Murban Crude •15 mins | 74.31 | +2.50 | +3.48% | |
| Natural Gas •11 mins | 3.149 | +0.004 | +0.13% | |
| Heating Oil •19 mins | 3.124 | -0.071 | -2.21% | |
| Gasoline •19 mins | 2.878 | -0.031 | -1.08% | ||
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| Gasoline •19 mins | 2.878 | -0.031 | -1.08% | |||
| Heating Oil •19 mins | 3.124 | -0.071 | -2.21% | |||
| WTI Midland •7 hours | 76.90 | +0.87 | +1.14% | |||
| Opec Basket •2 days | 84.43 | -3.47 | -3.95% | |||
| Indian Basket •2 days | 78.66 | -4.18 | -5.05% |
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Click Here for 150+ Global Oil Prices
| Marine •667 days | 75.08 | -2.22 | -2.87% | ||
| Murban •667 days | 76.34 | -1.97 | -2.52% | ||
| Iran Heavy •353 days | 64.96 | -0.76 | -1.16% | ||
| Basra Light •1661 days | 71.69 | -3.60 | -4.78% | ||
| Saharan Blend •353 days | 68.65 | -0.72 | -1.04% | ||
| Bonny Light •108 days | 67.66 | +3.95 | +6.20% | ||
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| Bonny Light •108 days | 67.66 | +3.95 | +6.20% | |||
| Girassol •667 days | 79.56 | -1.80 | -2.21% | |||
| Opec Basket •2 days | 84.43 | -3.47 | -3.95% |
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Click Here for 150+ Global Oil Prices
| Canadian Crude Index •1114 days | 53.57 | -1.23 | -2.24% | ||
| Western Canadian Select •23 hours | 63.70 | -4.70 | -6.87% | ||
| Canadian Condensate •23 hours | 78.20 | -4.70 | -5.67% | ||
| Premium Synthetic •23 hours | 76.45 | -4.70 | -5.79% | ||
| Sweet Crude •23 hours | 70.30 | -4.70 | -6.27% | ||
| Peace Sour •23 hours | 68.05 | -4.70 | -6.46% | ||
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| Peace Sour •23 hours | 68.05 | -4.70 | -6.46% | |||
| Light Sour Blend •23 hours | 68.30 | -4.70 | -6.44% | |||
| Syncrude Sweet Premium •23 hours | 72.55 | -4.70 | -6.08% | |||
| Central Alberta •23 hours | 67.90 | -4.70 | -6.47% |
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Click Here for 150+ Global Oil Prices
| Louisiana Light •3 days | 86.28 | -3.99 | -4.42% | ||
| Domestic Swt. @ Cushing •2 days | 72.53 | -4.70 | -6.09% | ||
| Giddings •2 days | 66.28 | -4.70 | -6.62% | ||
| ANS West Coast •6 days | 97.81 | -1.41 | -1.42% | ||
| West Texas Sour •2 days | 74.28 | -4.70 | -5.95% | ||
| Eagle Ford •2 days | 72.53 | -4.70 | -6.09% | ||
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| Eagle Ford •2 days | 72.53 | -4.70 | -6.09% | |||
| Oklahoma Sweet •2 days | 72.50 | -4.75 | -6.15% | |||
| Kansas Common •2 days | 62.88 | -4.70 | -6.95% | |||
| Buena Vista •444 days | 70.40 | +1.10 | +1.59% |
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Click Here for 150+ Global Oil Prices
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12 hoursIEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns
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13 hoursExxon Set to Supply LNG to South Africa’s First Import Terminal
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14 hoursTotalEnergies: Saudi Refinery Won’t Fully Recover Until 2027
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15 hoursPoland Moves To Tax Fuel Windfalls Earned During Iran War
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16 hoursFalling Murban and Dubai Prices Open Arbitrage to U.S. and Europe
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17 hoursECB: Iran Peace Deal Won't Erase Europe's Energy Price Shock
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18 hoursFirst Iranian Oil Moves Past U.S. Blockade Ahead of Deal Signing
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19 hoursGlobal Gas Markets Get Another Boost as Australian LNG Strike Ends
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20 hoursQatar Prepares LNG Comeback Ahead of Hormuz Reopening
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21 hoursChina’s Gasoline Car Market Is Crashing as Fuel Prices Surge
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22 hoursChina Bets on Ultra-Deep Shale Gas to Boost Energy Security
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23 hoursOil Tankers Reverse Course on Hopes of Hormuz Reopening
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1 dayUS Crude Oil Inventories Down Again, Losing 52 Million Barrels in 9 Weeks
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1 dayOil Prices Crash as Traders Bet the War Is Over
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1 dayTrump Deal Resumes Iran Oil Sales Immediately
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2 daysU.S. EV Adoption Slows While Global Demand Accelerates
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2 daysAustralian LNG Strike Threatens Global Gas Supply as Qatar Recovery Lags
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2 daysDubai and Murban Crude Signal End of Middle East Supply Crunch
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2 daysQatar Eyes Quick LNG Restart Once Hormuz Reopens
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2 daysWorld's Largest Tanker Operator Cautions Against Hormuz Rush
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2 daysBanks Slash Oil Price Forecasts After U.S.-Iran Breakthrough
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2 daysEuropean Gas Prices Tumble 6% On US-Iran Peace Deal
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3 daysRussia Eases Environmental Rules for Domestic Fuel amid Shortages
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3 daysIndia Pushes States to Fast-Track Nuclear and Battery Storage Approvals
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3 daysFirst LNG Tanker Clears Hormuz After U.S.-Iran Deal Announcement
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3 daysChina’s Return to the Oil Market Could Boost Inflation
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3 daysIndia’s Solar Capacity Set for 22% Annual Growth Through 2035
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3 daysJapanese Shipping Companies Hold Back Despite Hormuz Deal
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3 daysAustralian Regulator Clears LNG Strike
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3 daysLNG Tanker Heads for Hormuz Amid News of Reopening
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3 daysOil Prices Plunge as U.S. and Iran Reach Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
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4 daysUK Sets January 2027 Deadline for Ban on Fuel Made From Russian Crude
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6 daysU.S. Military Helping Move 7 Million Bpd Out of Persian Gulf, Wright Says
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6 daysEurope Wary Of Too Much Dependence on U.S. LNG
Breaking News:
IEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns
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State of Global Oil Inventories Ruins Iran Peace Optimism
By Irina Slav - Jun 17, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT
- Oil markets may be celebrating the U.S.-Iran peace deal too early, as reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not immediately restore tanker traffic, production, refining activity, or insurance coverage.
- Global oil inventories have been heavily depleted during the Hormuz crisis, with analysts and industry executives warning that stocks are approaching critically low operational levels and will need to be replenished.
- A growing disconnect has emerged between bearish futures markets and a tighter physical market.
As oil benchmarks crash and Brent slips below $80 per barrel, a growing number of analysts are sounding an alarm: Hormuz may reopen, but oil production in the region would not rebound immediately—and the world’s oil inventories are depleting.
Back in May, Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie warned that by July, parts of the world would face what he dubbed “minimum operational levels” of crude oil supply due to depletion resulting from storage withdrawals to avoid shortages amid the Hormuz crisis.
Energy Aspects analysts also noted, at the start of June, that even if a peace deal is signed, it would take a while for tanker traffic to return to pre-war levels. In the meantime, the world was using oil from inventories. As reports about a deal between the United States and Iran multiplied in the past few days, so did warnings about not expecting an immediate return to normal in terms of oil production and exports from the Persian Gulf.
“While the conflict may have come to an end and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually return to normal, the damage already done cannot be reversed overnight,” Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said earlier this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. “This includes not only any physical damage to oil infrastructure but also the economic strain endured by oil-importing economies that have faced elevated energy costs for months.”
The publication collected the reactions of several analysts from the energy space, and none of them supported the assumption that once the deal between the U.S. and Iran is signed—which is far from a certainty—oil flows via the Hormuz would miraculously rebound. A Vortexa analyst made an important point about insurance, as well. “If the US-Iran deal is completed and insurance companies are willing to insure the vessels, ballast tanker transits would increase, followed by the restart of crude production and then the restart of refineries,” senior market analyst Xavier Tang said. Related: IEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns
Meanwhile, oil industry executives have also stepped up warnings about the state of global oil inventories. “Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” Chevron’s chief executive Mike Wirth said in early June.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Exxon senior VP Neil Chapman also warned on low inventory levels at the time. “I mean really, really low levels,” he said. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”
U.S. crude oil inventories have been on an extended decline, with the latest weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute showing the last nine weeks have seen the total reduced by 52 million barrels. Reserves at Cushing are also significantly down, to about 21 million barrels, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report that noted how “At roughly 20 million barrels, tank operators begin running into a variety of complications.”
Such complications first surfaced about the strategic petroleum reserve system when the Biden administration released some 180 million barrels to rein in oil prices in 2022 after the West bombarded Russia with sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. The complications arise from the need to keep a certain level of oil in the storage caverns so they can remain operational. The U.S. is not the only country that has been drawing on reserves to keep demand covered, which means demand to refill those reserves is looming over a market that has yet to return to normal operation and that still features rather healthy demand overall.
Meanwhile, no one besides oil traders seems enthusiastic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Insurers, as noted by Vortexa’s analyst above, are taking a naturally cautious stance, waiting to see what happens on Friday and afterward before they return to business as usual. Shippers are not eager to get sailing, either. “We're not seeing any big shipowners changing their stance at this point. They're staying put for now,” the global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. told Bloomberg. “As of now, no one has a clear understanding of the terms and text of this agreement,” said Anoop Singh.
It appears the oil market is once again in a dual reality. One side of that duality is the futures market, ruled by media reports that fuel optimism about the end of hostilities in the Persian Gulf and the normalization of energy trade, overlooking the numerous challenges on the way to that normalization. The other side is the physical market, which has seen actual oil prices soar much higher than the benchmarks on the futures market, and which has experienced significant inventory drawdowns that oil-importing nations would be eager to replenish at first opportunity—just in case.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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What I Cover Irina Slav has been writing about global energy markets since 2007, covering the oil and gas industry, energy security, commodities, and the…
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