The article discusses the recent developments regarding SpaceX and its stock (NASDAQ:SPCX) ahead of upcoming earnings. Analyst Glenn Thum from Phillip Securities has issued a 'Sell' rating with a price target of $75. SpaceX is under pressure from short sellers holding a $24.6 billion position, with recent short interest reaching 34% of publicly traded shares. The company generates most of its revenue from Starlink but faces substantial investments in AI and other areas while struggling with operating losses. Investors should focus on Starlink's subscriber growth and financial health in the upcoming earnings report, where expected revenue is around $6.93 billion with a projected operating loss of $1.55 billion.

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Top Analyst Drops Last Minute Call on SpaceX Before Earnings

Moz Farooque ACCA

Mon, August 3, 2026 at 1:53 PM EDT2 min read

SPCX \ +5.68%

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

SpaceX ( NASDAQ:SPCX) faces a high-stakes double test this week as short sellers build a $24.6 billion position against the stock and Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum launches coverage with a Sell rating and $75 target. With first-quarterly results due Tuesday and a major share lock-up expiring Thursday, investors must decide whether Starlink's profits can support SpaceX's enormous AI and space ambitions.

SpaceX generates revenue from Starlink connectivity, commercial and government launches, and a developing AI-compute business. Starlink currently supplies most of the company's meaningful operating profit, while AI infrastructure and Starship require substantial investment.

Short interest reached 219.3 million shares as of July 29, representing about 34% of SpaceX's publicly traded shares. The position has expanded from just 23.3 million shares in mid-June. As many as 911.5 million additional shares could become eligible for trading when the first lock-up expires August 6, creating a potential supply shock shortly after earnings.

Thum argues that AI carries the valuation but not the earnings. SpaceX's AI unit generated $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but recorded a $6.4 billion operating loss, according to the analyst, who expects cumulative negative free cash flow of roughly $90 billion through 2030. He also warned that major compute agreements expire by late 2029.

Starlink remains SpaceX's profit engine, while its dominant launch franchise represented only 22% of 2025 revenue. Thum does not expect Starship to become a major valuation driver until it demonstrates orbital delivery.

Investor Takeaway On SpaceX Stock

Wall Street expects second-quarter revenue near $6.93 billion and a $1.55 billion operating loss. Investors should watch Starlink subscriber growth, average revenue per user, AI-compute revenue and capital spending, alongside management's timeline for self-funding the AI operation.

A stronger Starlink margin, credible compute contracts or major Starship progress could pressure crowded short positions. Weak guidance, continued cash burn or heavy insider selling after the lock-up would strengthen the bearish case and move Thum's $75 target closer into view.