What To Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

​

• Top Stories

• Thursday's Trading: Live Coverage

• Would 'Rational' AI Spending Be Good for Markets?

• Michael Dell's Rising Net Worth Has Him Richer Than Some Big-Name Execs

• Trump Pokes Holes In Tariff Wall—Even As He Rebuilds It

Job seekers are hoping companies can break out of the low-hire, low-fire rut. Joe Raedle /Getty Images

Close

Key Takeaways

• Forecasters expect the U.S. economy added fewer jobs in May than in April.
• Despite the deceleration, the third month in a row of job gains would be a sign the job market is stabilizing after a very shaky start.
• Because of the crackdown on immigration and the aging workforce, it will take fewer job creations than in the past to keep unemployment from rising.

Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.

ASK

The job market may be stabilizing after a shaky start to the year.

A report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show U.S. employers added 80,000 jobs in May, down from a gain of 115,000 in April, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.1 The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, a relatively low level by historical standards.

Should the report match expectations, it would mark the third month in a row the economy has added jobs, the first such stretch since early 2025. The stabilizing trend would be a turnaround after late 2025 and the outset of the year, when the economy lost jobs in multiple months as economic uncertainty discouraged hiring.2

What This Means For The Economy

Stable job growth is a good sign for the health of the overall economy, and takes pressure off of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to prevent a surge of unemployment.

Forecasters expect most of the job gains to be in education and healthcare, continuing the trend from recent reports. Some economists said they expect job growth to continue as the year goes on.

Another wrinkle is that because of reduced immigration and the aging workforce, it will take fewer jobs added to the economy each month than in the past to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Economists at Deutsche Bank, for instance, put the "break-even" rate at 20,000 jobs.

Related Education

Understanding Nonfarm Payroll and Its Economic Impact\ \ What Is the Unemployment Rate?\ \

Although the economy struggled to meet that benchmark late last year, there are signs things have turned around, economists at the bank led by Chief Economist Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a commentary.

"Downside risks are still present from the continuation of the fragile low-hiring, low-firing equilibrium," they wrote. "But upside risks have also emerged, as payroll gains have picked up against a backdrop of constrained labor supply. Indeed, some sectors like construction that are most impacted by the immigration crackdown are showing signs of labor market tightening and wage acceleration."

Do you have a news tip for Investopedia reporters? Please email us at

tips@investopedia.com

Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.

ASK

Article Sources

Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.

1. Marketwatch. U.S. Economic Calendar.

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Federal Reserve Economic Data. All Employees, Total Nonfarm.

Open a New Account

Advertiser Disclosure

×

The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace.

Read more

Partner Links

Open a New Bank Account

Advertiser Disclosure

×

The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace.

Related Articles

\ \ Are Jobs Back? Openings Surged To Two-Year High In April \ \ What To Expect From the Jobs Report on Friday \ \ Jeff Bezos Says AI Will Elevate Jobs, Not Eliminate Them. Work With a 'Bulldozer Instead of a Shovel' \ \ Can AI Make Up for America's Rapidly Retiring Workforce? The Economy May Depend on It \ \ A Quarter Of Job Searches Are Taking More Than A Year \ \ Beige Book Raises Red Flags About Inflation \ \ Support For Rate Hikes Is Gaining Steam On Fed's Policy Committee \ \ Iran War Pushed Up The Fed's Favorite Measure Of Inflation In April

\ \ Iran Says the Strait of Hormuz Will Stay Closed. What Happens to the US Economy Next? \ \ Fed Report Finds Stable Finances, But Pressure is Building For Many Households \ \ What Will Happen to the US Economy If the Strait of Hormuz Doesn’t Open Soon? \ \ Trump Pokes More Holes In His Tariff Wall, Even As He Rebuilds It \ \ Less Gas, More Deals—Here’s How High Gas Prices Are Changing the Way Americans Spend \ \ U.S. Employers Added Far More Jobs Than Expected In April \ \ Fed Faces Tough Choices as Growth Slows and Inflation Rises \ \ What To Expect From Tuesday's Inflation Report

Newsletter Sign Up

Newsletter Sign Up

Read Original at Investopedia →