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How SpaceX Stock Can End Its Brutal 4-Week Slump Today
By Al Root
Updated Aug 07, 2026, 11:42 am EDT / Original Aug 07, 2026, 7:41 am EDT
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About This Summary
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SpaceX stock rose early Friday, on track to end a four-week losing streak after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.
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SpaceX reported second-quarter sales of $7.8 billion and Ebitda of $3.5 billion, beating Wall Street expectations.
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Retail shareholders have lost roughly $4.5 billion on SpaceX stock after receiving about 20% of IPO shares and buying billions more.
Retail investors were buying SpaceX
SPCX\ \ +12.18% all the way through its four-week losing streak—and now they might finally have something to show for it.
On Friday, shares of Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company were up 10.4% at $126.81. The S&P 500
SPX\ \ +0.47% and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA\ \ +0.15% were up 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.
The gain leaves the stock up 17% for the week. Better-than-expected second-quarter earnings have helped.
On Tuesday evening, SpaceX reported sales of $7.8 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, of $3.5 billion. Wall Street was looking for $6.8 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. What’s more, analysts now project 2027 revenue of about $102 billion, up from $72 billion at the end of July, according to FactSet.
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SpaceX stock is trying to end a four-week losing streak that has sent shares down 33%. That’s been particularly painful for retail investors, who were allocated about 20%External link of the shares sold in SpaceX’s record-setting IPO.
They have been buying since then. Data tracked by JPMorgan analyst Arun Jain shows retail inflows of at least $3.6 billion to SpaceX stock in the eight-plus weeks following the IPO.
Some back-of-the-envelope math shows the average price of those purchases is roughly $150 a share. Including the stock allocated in the IPO, retail shareholders have lost roughly $4.5 billion on SpaceX stock. In Wall Street parlance, that means retail shareholders have been the ones left “holding the bag.” They have endured painful losses partly avoided by institutions selling stock at higher prices.
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Of course, institutional investors still own a lot of SpaceX stock. And it’s only a snapshot in time. No stock can really be judged over just a couple of months. And SpaceX stock has faced the typical IPO problem of locked-up shares. Millions of shares held by early investors and insiders are slowly becoming available to trade. The expectation that early investors take profits has kept a lid on shares.
That makes it tough for investors to know what the market really thinks of SpaceX stock.
Is it up because of strong earnings, or have bearish investors started trimming short bets after some 912 million shares were unlocked on Thursday? It’s hard to say.
It’s probably both. What can be said with certainly is that the stock is having a very good week, which is a relief to all shareholders.
The lockup issue will fade as more shares are available to trade. It shouldn’t be a big factor by the end of the year. By early 2027, investors will know if all those retail purchases were made at good prices.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.comExternal link.
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