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Survey Finds 70% of Tax Scholars Oppose California’s Billionaire Tax
A survey of National Tax Association members shows nearly three‑quarters would vote against Proposition 40.
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Reporting by Fortune, a poll of tax experts shows that roughly 70% would vote against Proposition 40, the state’s proposed one‑time 5% levy on the wealth of about 250 California billionaires.
The survey was conducted by Jeff Hoopes, a professor at the University of North Carolina and director of the UNC Tax Center, who reached out to members of the National Tax Association (NTA). Of the 105 respondents, 73 (69.5%) indicated they would oppose the measure, while 32 (30.5%) would support it.
Accountants expressed the steepest resistance, with 17 of 20 (85%) voting no. Economists were also largely against the tax, 49 of 69 (71%) rejecting it. In contrast, lawyers showed a modest majority in favor, nine of 15 (60%) supporting Proposition 40. The three principal drafters of the tax—Brian Galle, David Gamage and Darien Shanske—are all tax‑law professors.
“The 70% of folks who would not vote for Prop 40 seems to have two different camps,” Hoopes told Fortune. One camp favors wealth taxes in principle but finds this particular design flawed; the other rejects wealth taxes outright. Written comments revealed concerns about a single state’s ability to enforce a wealth tax, valuation disputes for private companies, and the risk that a “one‑time” levy could become permanent.
Hoopes warned that the tax could trigger residency shifts among the ultra‑rich, citing Elon Musk’s move to Texas as an example. He noted that in Norway, the richest individuals left after a wealth tax was introduced, potentially denting expected revenue. Estimates of the tax’s fiscal impact vary widely: drafters project up to $100 billion in revenue, while a Hoover Institution paper argues the state could lose more in future income‑tax receipts than the wealth tax would generate.
Public opinion appears divided. A September poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found 52% of likely voters support Proposition 40, but parallel measures backed by Google co‑founder Sergey Brin aim to repeal the tax.
Why it matters: The stark disconnect between tax scholars and public sentiment highlights uncertainty over the feasibility and economic consequences of California’s proposed billionaire tax.